Physics 5 / History 177                                           Fall1997/ Spring 1998

The Nuclear Age: Its Physics and History

Profs. Gary R. Goldstein and Martin J. Sherwin


GLOBAL EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR WAR

  1. Direct or local effects
    1. Blast, burning and radiation for single bombs multiplied by warheads reaching targets of various types
    2. Number of warheads and average size (early 1980's)- 20,000 (~16,000 in '97) strategic warheads, 4000 Mt US and 8000 (~4000) Mt USSR
    3. Types of targets - Silos, military, industrial, infrastructure (highways, power plants including nuclear), civilian - strategic planning
    4. OTA (1979) 7800 Mt on 250 US cities -> 100-165 million deaths depending on targetting
    5. "Local" fallout - windborn rather than upper atmosphere, for 2 days - Radiation effects from early fallout that blankets most of the US lead to doses in the 40-100's of Rems for several days
    6. AMBIO (Sweden 1982) ~20,000 warheads distributed among different targets worldwide -> 870 million killed and 280 million injured (out of world pop'n of 5-6 billion) which includes 160 million acute radiation sickness victims from initial gamma radiation and fallout (see pp.363-366)
  2. Global or indirect effects
    1. Synergistic effects on ecosphere
    2. Ash, smoke and debris blanket the atmosphere of the Northern hemisphere
      1. Ash and smoke depend on ground fires and firestorms
      2. Debris depends on height of detonations - "silo busting" is near ground, city targets are higher for maximizing the blast effects on structures
      3. Debris is lofted up by rising fireball

    3. Intercepting sunlight (by scattering and absorption) leads to darkened skies and rapid temperature reduction - How many degrees and for how long?
        Nuclear winter or autumn leading to enormous environmental changes that disrupt agriculture and food production leading to famines and starvation
        (pp.376) Lowering of ave.temp. by 20o to 10o over 1st month from 3d model (NCAR 1986)
    4. Ozone depletion - Chemical reactions in upper atmosphere depletes ozone layer through Nitrous Oxides produced by explosion in air (N and O) leading to UV contamination and then ecological changes that increase cancers and destroy agriculture and plankton, etc.
    5. Delayed fallout
        (TTAPS 1983) leads to 40 Rad dose after 2 days or about 80 million cancer deaths (40Rad x 200 cdeaths per mill x 1 billion people) in the Northern Hemisphere if 1 bill are exposed
    6. Destruction of social and economic infrastructure
      1. Collapse of medical care
      2. Food production and distribution
      3. "Nuclear Crash" (MIT 1988) 1 to 10% of strike hits energy production facilities (oil, gas, electrical power stations) will destroy economy for decades, leading to widespread starvation, disease and fatal injuries.