The Horse Race of 2004: Why the Presidential Race May Be the Most Interesting Since - 2000
By Mitesh Popat, M'07
Few things get Democrats' blood boiling like mention of the 2000 presidential election. They point out that Gore won the popular vote, talk about hanging chads, butterfly ballots, disenfranchised voters, and the 5-4 Supreme Court decision that ended the entire fiasco.
The embodiment of this residual anger from 2000 combined with anger towards President Bush's policies fueled Governor Howard Dean's rise. His fiery campaign stumps and regular tongue-lashings made him the presumptive nominee by the end of 2003. His momentum, grassroots mobilization, and utilization of the Internet for fundraising shook the democratic establishment.
But then came Iowa and the screech that shook Democrats everywhere.
Suddenly, Democrats seemed tired of being angry and pragmatic concerns such as "electability" came to the fore - and Senator John Kerry seemed chosen to carry the torch. But does he indeed stand the best chance of beating Bush and does Senator John Edwards stand a chance of stopping the Kerry freight train?
Maybe. Edwards fared well amongst the all-important independents in Wisconsin. Independents make up one-third of all registered voters, and this is a key selling point for Edwards. However, Edwards may be running out of time, as he has 214 delegates to Kerry's 735.
The differences between Edwards and Kerry are ones of nuance. Kerry has taken on Edwards's populist message, and recently, his attacks on job losses since Bush took office. Both have taken the same stance on gay marriage - they are for civil unions but not marriage. Both were for the Iraq resolution but are unhappy with its handling since that time.
It is not in Edwards's interest as a potential vice-presidential candidate or in the interest of the Democratic Party to attack Kerry who will likely go on to capture the nomination. So Edwards must tread carefully, and the differences between Kerry and Edwards come down to background, life experiences, and personal appeal.
Kerry comes from privilege, much as President Bush. Kerry is a decorated Vietnam Veteran whose service is clearly evidenced. Indeed, his military service is part of his appeal in a time of increased security concerns. However, his long legislative record would be a springboard of Republican attacks. Edwards, on the other hand comes from a blue collar background. He was a highly successful trial lawyer and is currently a freshman senator - and can therefore play his "outsider" trumpet loudly. Edwards also possesses a certain Clintonian southern charm, if not his shrewd political mind. In key battleground states in the South, Edwards stands to fare better than Kerry, and no Democrat has won the presidency without carrying at least five southern states.
Tuesday, March 2, is "Super Tuesday" with ten states voting, including the two biggest, California and New York. In order to stop Kerry's momentum, Edwards must win a contest on Super Tuesday to legitimately continue on. His best chance of doing so is in Ohio and Georgia, both open primaries like Wisconsin, where Independents and Republicans may vote as well.
Either candidate should provide a compelling alternative to Bush and should make for an exciting summer for the fans of politics. There definitely persists a residual anger from 2000 and the Democratic base is energized - there have been record turnouts at primaries
.
However, whichever senator becomes the Democratic nominee will have to buck a trend: no sitting senator has won the presidency since Kennedy.