United States 4, Japan 3
World Baseball Classic
March 12, 2005
Thoughts on the science of sabermetrics, with a White Sox bias
I love it when you analyze! - Hawk
Sabermetric Graphic of the Week
United States 4, Japan 3
World Baseball Classic
March 12, 2005
Here is a graphic of Win Probability, for the US v Japan Round 2 game of the World Baseball Classic. The game runs from left to right on the X axis. The probability of an American win is shown on the Y axis. Each dot represents a run scored, and the dashed vertical lines indicate the innings.
You can clearly see the importance of the "phantom run" for the Japanese in the 8th inning. Iwamura's sacrifice fly scored Nishioka, giving Japan a 4-3 lead. When the umpires ruled that Randy Winn caught the ball *after* the runner had left third base, the Americans were credited with a double play and the inning was over. Most importantly, the run came off the board. From the graph above, you can see how large this play ruled in the ultimate US victory.
This line graph of Win Probability was made using software from Studes' Baseball Graphs. See Harball Times for the rationale, history (including early work by Mills and Mills) and interpretation of this statistic. Studes summarizes:
An average team, at any point in a game, has a certain likelihood of winning the game. For instance, if you're leading by two runs in the ninth inning, your chances of winning the game are much greater than if you're leading by three runs in the first inning. With each change in the score, inning, number of outs, base situation or even pitch, there is a change in the average team's probability of winning the game.
. More sabermetric graphics. . .
White Sox Essays
You Could Build a Team Around Joe Crede
Or, what does Mike Devereaux have to do with the 2005 White Sox? (4/16/05)
Starting Rotation, 2005. 1983? 1993?
How does this year's staff compare to the studs of 1983 and 1993? (2/19/05)
The White Sox will win the division* (2/18/05)
Bob Foltman of the Chicago Tribune thinks that Mark Buehrle's heavy workload has already begun to show ill effects. Can he convince you by presenting misleading data? (2/17/05)
Basics of Sabermetric Research
The research hypothesis: the first, the most important, and the oft-overlooked aspect in a good research project. (2/27/05)
What are your expected results, and how can they be explained? (3/1/05)
Translating hypotheses into graphics, as preparation for data anlaysis. (3/9/05)
David Tybor
Tufts University School of Medicine
136 Harrison Ave, Boston MA 02111
Instructor, Statistics and Sabermetrics: The Objective Analysis of Baseball (Tufts Summer School Course of the Week)
Course Director, Principles of Biostatistics
Course Director, Introduction to SAS Programming
Small Group Instrutor, Epidemiology and BiostatisticsCopyright 2005