REGRESSION ESTIMATES:
SUPPORT FOR EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
(Pooled GLS/ARMA)
Data Basis: EU8
Source: Eichenberg and Dalton, 1993 p. 522
Dependent Variable: See foot of Table.
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1. 2.
1973-1988 1976-1988
N=248 N=208
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COEFFICIENT T-RATIO COEFFICIENT T-RATIO
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R2 (adj) .69 .72
CONSTANT 23.519 2.169 12.753 .992
INFLATION -1.696 -3.568 - 1.819 -3.196
UNEMPLOYMENT - .286 -1.032 - .272 - .984
GDPINDEX 11.801 1.367 18.649 1.852
INTRA- EC EXPORT % .384 3.488 .432 3.459
EC BUDGET RETURN .214 .099
EAST-WEST CONFLICT -.006 -1.336 - .002 - .497
UK REFERENDUM 29.349 3.456
DANISH SEA 23.972 3.928 23.755 3.898
IRISH SEA 9.100 .967 9.415 .935
EC ELECT '79 3.839 1.909 4.667 2.495
UK -44.816 -8.689 - 44.875 - 8.059
DENMARK -40.971 -19.830 - 40.452 -13.377
IRELAND -19.034 -5.677 - 20.068 - 1.929
NETHERLANDS 13.269 4.808 14.914 4.984
ITALY 22.429 10.114 22.732 8.679
FRANCE 3.301 1.117 2.701 .998
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DIAGNOSTIC INFORMATION BY CROSS SECTION
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Residual | Residual
Mean RVR | Mean RVR
|
BELGIUM - .0026 .844 | - .1664 .896
DENMARK - .0017 .425 | .0037 .415
GERMANY - .0017 .792 | .1900 .875
FRANCE - .1552 .955 | - .1189 .812
IRELAND - .5626 1.682 | - .7680 1.802
ITALY - .0015 .420 | .0036 .279
NETHERLANDS .2037 .444 | .0030 .212
UK -1.0784 2.439 | -1.6485 2.711
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Explanatory Notes
RVR is a "residual variance ratio", the ratio of actual residual variance for a cross section to the expected variance. Expected variance is the pooled error variance divided by the number of cross sections.
OLS Diagnostics: The OLS versions of Equations 1 and 2 produced the following diagnostic information. Starred values of the first-order autocorrelations (ACF1) were used as the value of Rho in the GLS versions of the equations.
EQUATION 1. | EQUATION 2.
|
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|
RESIDUAL| RESIDUAL
CROSS SECTION ACF1 VARIANCE| ACF1 VARIANCE
|
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|
BELGIUM .17 5.519 | .18 5.444
DENMARK -.08 2.875 | .00 2.875
GERMANY .14 5.611 | .24 5.998
FRANCE *.49 5.674 | *.45 4.498
IRELAND *.39 10.044 | *.34 10.914
ITALY .16 3.474 | .13 2.616
NETHERLANDS *.35 3.015 | .19 1.606
UK *.62 14.654 | *.60 15.010
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this is a regression analysis of the "good thing" Eurobarometer question: "Generally speaking, do you think that (our country's) membership in the Community is a good thing, a bad thing, or neither good nor bad?"
The specific operationalization in the equation is "Net Support", that is, the percentage who respond "good thing" minus the percentage who respond "bad thing".
For design related questions or comments, please contact Carlos E. Granier.
For content related questions or comments, please contact Prof. Eichenberg.
© 1998, Richard C. Eichenberg. For classroom use at Tufts University only. Citation or
reproduction of this material is prohibited without the written consent of the author.