REGRESSION ESTIMATES:
SUPPORT FOR EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
1973-1996 (Pooled GLS/AR1)
Data Basis: EU8
Source: Eichenberg and Dalton, 1997, Table 1.
Revised results: see Eichenberg and Dalton, 1998.
Dependent Variable: See foot of Table
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1. 2.
1973-88 (n=248) 1973-1996 (n=376)
COEFFICIENT T-RATIO COEFFICIENT T-RATIO
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R-SQUARE (adj) 0.678 0.456
CONSTANT 21.764 2.35 29.456 2.851
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
INFLATION -2.055 -4.0582 -1.2996 -2.74
UNEMPLOYMENT -0.48101 -1.7039 -0.2704 -0.7459
GDPINDEX 17.4611 1.7693 17.8842 2.1487
EU EXPORT % 0.3816 4.0371 0.1332 0.6059
POLITICAL EVENTS
UK REFERENDUM 29.9115 3.6629 26.5568 3.7849
DANISH SEA 23.987 3.9403 18.8337 2.0807
IRISH SEA 9.2214 0.9435 7.6133 1.0421
EC ELECT 1979 4.186 2.0808 2.6874 1.2307
EC ELECT 1989 2.5186 1.0887
DANISH MAASTRICHT 5.2139 0.8063
MAASTRICHT 5.04 2.0991
UNIFICATION 7.6087 3.1972
NATIONAL TRADITIONS
UK -42.6409 -8.2049 -38.0396 -6.9835
DENMARK -40.135 -18.1552 -33.4966 -11.1572
IRELAND -15.2201 -3.8966 -0.06562 -0.0845
BELGIUM 4.1644 0.6822
ITALY 24.2028 10.08 22.2552 6.2296
FRANCE 4.571 1.5448 2.3452 0.4833
NETHERLANDS 15.0088 8.3658 22.3008 3.7646
CONTROLS
YEAR 1996 -10.8888 -4.08
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DIAGNOSTIC INFORMATION
GLS DIAGNOSTICS
MEAN MEAN
RESID RVR RESID RVR
BELGIUM -0.0875 0.814 0.619 0.72
DENMARK 0.0008 0.411 -0.0202 1.13
GERMANY 0.1038 0.817 0.1095 0.671
FRANCE -0.1863 0.974 0.5848 0.928
IRELAND -0.644 1.756 -1.1294 1.985
ITALY 0.0009 0.472 0.0374 0.374
NETHERLANDS 0.0006 0.399 0.1294 0.212
UK -1.0966 2.357 0.2303 1.98
OLS DIAGNOSTICS
ACF1 RV ACF1 RV
BELGIUM 0.1 4.933 0.59 9.2509
DENMARK -0.1 2.8016 0.3 9.9884
GERMANY 0.09 5.7586 0.41 8.362
FRANCE 0.53 5.9242 0.75 11.9992
IRELAND 0.42 11.1443 0.72 17.4706
ITALY 0.17 3.9401 0.54 8.0554
NETHERLANDS 0.29 2.9661 0.55 4.4639
UK 0.63 13.6075 0.75 18.5226
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Explanatory Notes
All estimates are GLS/AR1. RVR is a "residual variance ratio", the ratio of actual residual variance for a cross-section to the expected variance.
Expected variance is the pooled error variance divided by the number of cross-sections.
OLS Diagnostics: The OLS versions of these equations produced the
first-order autocorrelation functions (ACF1) shown in the table. Shaded values of the ACF were employed as the value of Rho in the GLS versions of the equations.
this is a regression analysis of the "good thing" Eurobarometer question: "Generally speaking, do you think that (our country's) membership in the Community is a good thing, a bad thing, or neither good nor bad?"
The specific operationalization in the equation is "Net Support", that is, the percentage who respond "good thing" minus the percentage who respond "bad thing".
For design related questions or comments, please contact Carlos E. Granier.
For content related questions or comments, please contact Prof. Eichenberg.
© 1998, Richard C. Eichenberg. For classroom use at Tufts University only. Citation or
reproduction of this material is prohibited without the written consent of the author.