Regression Estimates
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  HomeSmallArrow REGRESSION ESTIMATES:

SUPPORT FOR EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
(OLS/LDV/PCSE --IV)

    Data Basis: EU8
    Source: Eichenberg and Dalton, 1997, Table 4.
    Revised results: see Eichenberg and Dalton, 1998.
    Dependent Variable: See foot of table.
    Estimation Method: See foot of table.

    ____________________________________________________________________

                        1974-1988        1974-1991          1974-1996
                         (n=23)           (n=280)            (n=360)
                       COEFFICIE  z    COEFFICIE   z    COEFFICIENT   z
    ____________________________________________________________________
    CONSTANT           9.852  1.038    1.115   0.110    12.787   1.787

    SUPPORT AT T-1(IV) 0.374  4.815    0.557   7.969    0.6781   2.457

    ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

    INFLATION         -2.392  -4.41   -1.757  -3.002   -1.621   -2.910
    UNEMPLOYMENT      -0.338  -1.01   -0.011  -0.035   -0.195   -0.722
    GDPINDEX           9.145  0.853    1.045   0.116    6.416    1.204
    EC EXPORT %        0.341  3.717    0.423   2.390   -0.026   -0.219

    POLITICAL EVENTS

    UK REFERENDUM     31.151  4.634   37.711   5.329    33.237   4.940
    DANISH SEA        28.547  4.912   28.655   4.125    28.446   3.671
    IRISH SEA          9.818  1.053    7.527   0.845     5.692   0.621
    EC ELECT 1979      2.826  1.115    2.578   1.028     3.346   1.266
    EC ELECT 1989                      8.731   2.431    10.486   2.898
    DANISH MAASTRICHT                                    7.557   1.340
    MAASTRICHT                         3.771   1.004     1.086   0.396
    UNIFICATION                        8.756   3.009    10.376   3.891

    NATIONAL TRADITIONS

    UK               -24.945  -5.58  -16.008  -4.394   -10.817  -3.909
    DENMARK          -22.780  -6.17  -16.143  -5.169    -9.774  -4.070
    IRELAND           -9.312  -3.27  -11.588  -2.148     4.444   1.147
    BELGIUM                           -6.122  -1.459     3.522   1.209
    ITALY             19.831  7.318   12.384   4.415    11.642   4.763
    FRANCE             4.939  3.063    0.478   0.223     2.735   1.522
    NETHERLANDS       10.031  6.305    1.808   0.419    11.581   3.715

    CONTROLS

    YEAR 1996                                          -11.031  -3.775
    ____________________________________________________________________
     

     

  HomeSmallArrow Dependent Variable:

    this is a regression analysis of the "good thing" Eurobarometer question: "Generally speaking, do you think that (our country's) membership in the Community is a good thing, a bad thing, or neither good nor bad?"

    The specific operationalization in the equation is "Net Support", that is, the percentage who respond "good thing" minus the percentage who respond "bad thing".

     

  HomeSmallArrow Estimation Technique:

    All coefficients are OLS with a lagged dependent variable (LDV), "panel corrected standard errors", and instrumental variable estimation.

    See Beck and Katz (1995) and especially Beck and Katz (1996) for an explanation of this estimation technique.

 


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© 1998, Richard C. Eichenberg. For classroom use at Tufts University only. Citation or
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